Analysis group chart of glass market trend in Augu

Analysis of glass market trend in August 2009 (Group diagram)

in August 2009, the production and sales of China's glass industry decreased, and the inventory situation improved. It is expected that the operation situation of the glass industry in August is expected to show some signs of improvement, but the pressure of new production capacity may appear at any time. In addition, the price fluctuation of raw fuels such as soda ash, heavy oil and natural gas may also increase the cost pressure of the glass industry

1. In 2009, the production and sales of the national glass industry decreased, and the inventory situation improved.

in 2009, the national cumulative production of flat glass was 275.36 million weight boxes, basically the same as the same period last year; For each month in the first six months, 3 The working temperature range is wide, and the monthly output increased by -5.85%, 1.71%, 0.83%, 3.08% and -7.29%, 1.34% year on year respectively. The growth rates of the above-mentioned growth rates were significantly lower than that of the same period last year. Among them, the growth rate of glass production in June fell by 10.26 percentage points year-on-year, and the decline rate of growth rate has slowed down

Figure 1 since 2000, the national flat glass production in the current month (unit: 10000 weight boxes) and the year-on-year growth rate of the production in the current month (%)

in recent years, the national key contact glass investment scope can be large or small enterprises, most of which belong to heavy metals, the monthly production fell by 13.01% year-on-year, and the sales fell by 5.26% year-on-year; The production and sales rate in June was 100.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.43 percentage points, but a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points over the previous month; Inventory decreased by 10.85% year-on-year. The glass industry shows a good trend of rising sales, declining inventories and rising prices. See Figure 2 and figure 3 for details. We believe that the situation of focusing on glass enterprises is highly representative of the industry, and the changes in the relationship between supply and demand have made certain positive changes in the glass industry

Figure 2 sales and inventory of key contact glass enterprises nationwide since 2007

Figure 3 product price trend of key contact glass enterprises nationwide since 2007

from the data of the real estate industry: the construction area of commercial housing nationwide in the first six months of 2009 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, a slight increase of 1 percentage point over the previous month, the decline in growth rate stopped, and showed some signs of bottoming out and rising; In the first six months of 2009, the new construction area of houses nationwide fell by 10.4% year-on-year, and the reduction rate of new construction area also slowed down year-on-year, showing some signs of stabilization. See Figure 4 and figure 5 for details. This will support the demand for glass

Figure 4 national commercial housing construction area (cumulative) and year-on-year growth rate change

Figure 5 national commercial housing new construction area (cumulative) and year-on-year growth rate change

from the perspective of raw materials: the price of heavy oil rose in the second quarter of 2009, and the prices of coal and soda ash were basically stable. Focus on glass enterprises. In the second quarter of 2009, the consumption of raw materials such as soda ash, heavy oil (coal tar) and coal was 10.89, 10.84 and 14.34 kg/weight box respectively, and the power consumption was 7.39kwh/weight box. The indicators of coal consumption and alkali consumption did not change much, and the oil consumption and power consumption increased by 15.44% and 14.57% respectively compared with the previous quarter

2. It is expected that the business situation of the glass industry in August is expected to show some signs of improvement, but the pressure of new production capacity may appear at any time

it is expected that the recovery of the real estate industry will provide some support for the demand for glass products, and the business situation of the glass industry is expected to continue to improve. With the improvement of the market, it is also worth paying attention to whether other more than 40 glass production lines that have stopped production and cold repair will resume production soon. Due to the serious overcapacity of the glass industry before the shutdown, if the glass production capacity of the shutdown and cold repair is quickly concentrated and resumed, it may exert direct pressure on the operation of the industry. In addition, the price fluctuation of raw fuels such as soda ash, heavy oil and natural gas may also increase the cost pressure of the glass industry