8 shares recommended by the hottest new star of el

2022-08-16
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Electrical equipment: new star fire recommended 8 shares

investment points "market driven + policy driven", starting the business cycle: Tesla achieved a milestone single quarter profit through mass production Model3 in 2018, which proved the feasibility of large-scale commercial promotion of cars. In 2018, despite the sharp decline in subsidies, the production and sales of new energy vehicles still achieved an increase of about 60%, which shows that the market driving force is gradually greater than the driving force of policy subsidies. With the continuous decline in the cost of power batteries and the fact that new energy vehicles are at the bottom of the industry, new energy vehicles will completely break away from subsidies from 2019 to 2020, and rely on cost-effective advantages to achieve self driven development. We predict that the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach million in 2019, the compound growth rate of passenger cars in the next three years to ensure that the wire rod is in a zigzag center line is expected to reach 37%, the compound growth rate of ternary lithium batteries in the next three years is expected to reach 57%, and the future business cycle of new energy vehicles is starting

steel prices fell, benefiting the midstream of wind power: in 2018, wind power related policies were issued one after another, and the wind power abandonment rate fell from 12% to 7% higher than expected; The new hoisting capacity in the industry increased from 19.7gw to about 24gw. The orders on hand of domestic wind turbine leaders up to 18q3 have reached a record high, and the upward inflection point of the industry has emerged. We expect that the new installed capacity of wind power will continue to achieve steady growth from 2019 to 2020. The steel cost in the midstream wind power industry accounts for a large proportion. History shows that the steel price is negatively correlated with the gross profit per ton of products. Due to the high probability that steel prices will continue to decline in 2019, the midstream wind power companies, including wind towers, flanges, bearings, engine room shells and other parts companies, are expected to benefit from the double benefits of the growth of the wind power industry and the profit transfer of steel prices to achieve more than expected growth

the industry is accelerating and the PV parity is imminent: the PV industry experienced an unprecedented earthquake in 2018

the local amplification of the industry has experienced extreme pessimism in the "531" new deal, and the higher the sensitivity in 2; The more uniform the gradient change is, the closer the relationship between Hall potential and displacement is to linearity. The photovoltaic Symposium in November 2018 and the parity new deal in January 2019 saw the dawn of hope. Although the new subsidy policy in 2019 is quite different from the initial expectation, the industry's backward production capacity accelerated to clear after the "531" last year, and the steep fall in product prices led to a rapid decline in the cost of photovoltaic kwh. At the end of 2018, the first large-scale photovoltaic parity project in China was realized and generated electricity in Golmud, Qinghai, and the process of photovoltaic parity has begun. At present, the conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon led by () is still hitting a record high, and the EPC cost of photovoltaic power stations is still declining. With the average utilization hours of photovoltaic in China, the photovoltaic industry is expected to achieve a wide range of parity by 2020. No matter how the new subsidy policy in 2019 is implemented, we believe that the most pessimistic moment in the industry has passed, and the spring of hope in the industry has arrived

investment suggestions: ① key recommendations for new energy vehicle sector ((), Enjie shares, (), Ningde times), attention: ((), Rongjie shares, (), (), Xingyuan materials, (), (), (), (), (), ()); ② Wind power photovoltaic sector recommended ((), Tianneng heavy industry, Longji shares, ()), attention ((), Zhenjiang shares, Hengrun shares, (), (), (), Jiejia Weichuang, Maiwei shares), UHV attention ((), (), (), ())

risk tip: the promotion of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; The new installed capacity of wind power PV is less than expected; There have been major changes in policies

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